Phoebus comments on HMRC property transactions

30 May 2025

Adam Oldfield, CEO at Phoebus Software said:

“A drop in transactions this month was always on the cards. March saw a significant spike as buyers rushed to beat the stamp duty deadline (more than double the same time last year) and with that temporary incentive now behind us, a slowdown in April was inevitable.

“Looking ahead, there are a few key factors we’ll be keeping a close eye on. Interest rates remain front of mind – the Bank of England recently cut the base rate to 4.25%, and there’s growing expectation that we could see it fall further to 3.75% by the end of the year. If that materialises, it could go some way to easing mortgage affordability pressures, especially for first-time buyers.

“That said, inflation has ticked up again, reaching 3.5% in April. Higher utility bills and increased taxation continue to squeeze household budgets, and that will likely have a knock-on effect on confidence in the housing market.

“On top of that, the supply side remains an ongoing concern. The government looks set to miss its target of 1.5 million new homes by 2029, potentially falling short by as many as 500,000. That shortfall could keep upward pressure on prices, even if demand softens in the short term.

“While a post-March dip was expected, we’re still seeing resilience in the market. The next few months will be shaped by how these macroeconomic pressures evolve – and how quickly both buyers and lenders can adjust to the shifting landscape.”