MorganAsh comments on BoE MPC decision

19 March 2026

Andrew Gething, managing director of MorganAsh, said:

“The conflict in the Middle East turned what looked like a nailed-on cut into the hold we see today. Frankly, we should be glad it is a hold after growing fear of a reactionary increase. Just as the economy was starting build some slow but steady momentum, this has now been stifled by Donald Trump and his war which has turned the art of the deal into the art of distraction. While the outlook remains hugely uncertain, what we can say is that the impact on oil and energy prices will likely hit inflation and in turn, limit the ability of the MPC to lower rates. How big an impact depends on how protracted the conflict becomes. With all that being said, higher for longer seems to be the expected path for the rest of the year.

“Mortgage pricing has already reacted to the turmoil with products being withdrawn and repriced in recent weeks, adding to the financial strain already felt by households – particularly those set to remortgage or who need to move. Not only does it reinforce the need for clear, consistent communication with customers, it places fresh emphasis on the need to identify and support vulnerable customers – a segment that is only likely to grow in the current climate.

“The FCA has recently called on firms to take a more proactive approach to customer vulnerability. For firms, that means not waiting for customers to raise their hand but actively identifying those who may be struggling and ensuring they get the right support. This requires good tech, proper processes and robust data – as set out in the recent guidance from the CII.”