After a weekend of increasing calls for Keir Starmer to announce a timetable for his departure as prime minister, social media messages on Sunday evening from leading Labour politicians caused the dials to quiver yesterday evening. However, for now the pound remains only a little down against the euro and US dollar compared to Friday.

Labour’s results in the local elections – a loss of around 1,200 seats – isn’t as bad as some predicted, and Starmer sought to restore confidence by bringing back former PM Gordon Brown in an economics role. That is just the sort of thing to impress the markets, but maybe not the voters, and yesterday afternoon Angela Rayner tweeted her support for the return not of Brown, but Manchester mayor Andy Burnham.

It looks as though matters will be coming to a head over the next 48 hours. This comes on top of an already-fragile global backdrop.

In the Strait of Hormuz the stop–start rhythm of “deal hopes” and “fresh strikes” has kept oil traders (and everyone who pays an energy bill) on edge. There have been new reports of US action around the strait and renewed warnings from Iran.

For currencies, confidence has been thin. Into Friday’s close, the pound and the euro were both a touch firmer against the dollar, with the euro and the pound broadly cancelling each other out. That’s less a vote of confidence in Europe, and more a reminder that the dollar can wobble when geopolitics pushes inflation expectations around and the next set of US data starts to look more awkward.

The next few days are packed with potential tripwires. In the UK, the political story will keep leaking into gilts, confidence and sterling sentiment. In the US, Tuesday brings the latest inflation release, which will land right in the middle of this oil-and-war inflation debate. And in Europe, rate expectations will be governed by data and any shift in tone from European Central Bank (ECB) rate setters.