TwentyCi comments on GDP

14 May 2026

Colin Bradshaw, CEO at TwentyCi says:

A stronger-than-expected GDP performance reinforces the picture of a UK property market that has so far remained more resilient than many anticipated. Given the current global backdrop, including continued instability in the Middle East, many expected confidence across housing and mortgage markets to deteriorate more sharply. Instead, our data continues to show a market that is still growing compared with 2024, although momentum has moderated in recent weeks.

There are still clear pressure points. Mortgage pricing volatility linked to higher swap rates has led to significant product repricing across the lending market, and many borrowers are once again facing fixed rates above 5%. Inflation risks are also reducing expectations of imminent interest rate cuts, keeping affordability under pressure.

At the same time, households are absorbing higher fuel and energy costs, while buyer enquiries softened during March before showing more mixed trends in April. We are also starting to see activity cool slightly in London and the South East.

However, the broader picture remains one of resilience. Buyers who are active in the market appear highly committed, and transaction volumes continue to hold up better than expected against a difficult economic backdrop. Our forecast remains 1.2 million transactions in 2026. While geopolitical risks remain elevated and conditions could shift quickly, the current evidence suggests the housing market is cooling gradually rather than entering a significant downturn.