Intermediaries report busiest start to a year since Stamp Duty rush but geopolitical uncertainty clouds the outlook
27 May 2026
- Average mortgage cases placed rises to 96 per year, up from 89 in Q4 2025
- Confidence recovers slightly quarter-on-quarter but falls month-on-month through Q1 as Iran conflict hits market sentiment
- DIP-to-completion conversion eases to 37% as pipeline efficiency returns to mid-2025 levels
27th May 2026, London
The latest Mortgage Market Tracker report from the Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association (IMLA) shows that mortgage intermediaries experienced an unusually active start to 2026, with the average number of cases placed per year rising to 96, up seven from 89 in Q4 2025, driven largely by a sharp wave of front-loaded borrower demand triggered by geopolitical turmoil.
The Iran conflict, which began in early 2026, caused significant volatility in swap rates and pushed inflation expectations higher, prompting economists to revise down their forecasts for Bank Rate cuts and leading many mortgage borrowers to accelerate their remortgaging and purchase plans. Bank of England gross secured lending data tells a contrasting story, falling to £68bn in Q1 from £78bn in Q4 2025, a divergence largely attributable to the lag between application activity and completed transactions, as well as growing caution in the wider economy.
Intermediary confidence recovered modestly at the quarter level compared with Q4 2025, but the month-by-month picture tells a more nuanced story. Sentiment improved between January and February before falling away in March as the Iran conflict unfolded, with the sharpest deterioration recorded in confidence about the outlook for the wider mortgage industry. Confidence in advisers’ own businesses remained more resilient, as it has throughout the past two years, and was the strongest of the three confidence measures at a net score of 95. Confidence in the outlook for the intermediary sector stood at 82, while confidence in the broader mortgage industry was 79 - all three remain a little below pre-Covid norms.
Business flow data shows some softening in pipeline efficiency compared with the Q4 2025 peak, though the picture remains broadly healthy. The proportion of Decisions in Principle resulting in a DIP accept eased back to 83% from the three-year high of 86% recorded in Q4, returning to the longer-run average. The DIP-accept-to-full-application rate held firm at 73% for the fourth consecutive quarter, a notable sign of consistency.
Kate Davies, executive director of IMLA, commented:
“The striking feature of Q1 2026 is how much of the activity was driven by external shock rather than underlying market momentum. The Iran conflict and the swap rate volatility it triggered appears to have pulled a significant volume of mortgage business forward into the first quarter - business that might otherwise have been spread more evenly through the year. Intermediaries responded with their customary professionalism and efficiency, supporting borrowers through a period of genuine uncertainty.
“While overall conversion rates have eased from the strong Q4 2025 levels, they remain within a reasonable range, and the stability of the DIP-to-full-application rate across four consecutive quarters is a reassuring signal of underlying process quality across the sector.
“It is worth noting that lenders’ willingness to revisit affordability criteria following the FCA’s guidance changes has been a quiet but meaningful tailwind, and one that we expect to continue supporting volumes through the rest of 2026. Intermediaries will, as ever, be at the centre of helping borrowers navigate a complex and fast-moving market.”
