At the risk of sounding like a cracked record, sterling starts the week against the euro pretty much where it has been for 11 months. However, it’s at the upper reaches of that narrow band, and 1% up on this time last month. It’s a more variable picture against the US dollar, but GBP/USD is exactly on the average of the past year.

Will that stability last this hectic week for both politics and economics? Currency markets will have one eye on central banks and the other on Makerfield – a suburb of Wigan – where Andy Burnham is widely expected to become an MP. This would precipitate a process that could soon see a change of prime minister, chancellor, top team and indeed direction of government.

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan all meet over the next few days, while last week’s European Central Bank (ECB) rate rise is still settling into the market.

This is a lot for currencies to digest, but on the political front at least, so far the markets seem unfazed by a likely Burnham win.

The biggest moment on the economic front comes from Washington, where Kevin Warsh will chair his first Federal Reserve meeting. The markets will be watching for more than just the rate decision. The question is whether he sounds independent, cautious and credible at a time when American inflation has heated up again and the White House has been leaning hard on the Fed.

Much of the dollar’s strength lies in confidence in the Fed’s independence, so a steady message could help calm markets. A political-sounding one could do the opposite.

The UK has its own test coming on Thursday, when the Bank of England announces its latest decision. The Bank held rates at its last meeting, but still warned that inflation could rise further this year. That leaves sterling in a familiar spot: supported by the prospect of higher rates, but held back by weak growth and a nervous domestic backdrop.

We will have that inflation result on Wednesday. And what of the cause of the rise in inflation? The USA and Iran have announced a framework for a peace settlement that they should be signing on Friday, which would see oil flowing freely through the Straits of Hormuz again.

For the euro, the ECB’s rate rise gave the single currency some policy support, even if it was not enough to spark a dramatic move. The bigger question now is whether Europe can cope with higher borrowing costs while growth remains patchy and energy risks keep drifting in and out of the headlines.