It’s barely two years since the Number 10 lectern was used by Rishi Sunak to call a general election in the pouring rain. The weather could hardly be more different today, but it seems increasingly likely that the lectern will be out again as Sir Keir Starmer is expected to announce a timetable, at least, for leaving.

Andy Burnham is waiting in the wings after his Makerfield by-election win, and while the currency markets don’t have a vote in leadership contests – indeed, neither do the British public – they often do react when a government looks like changing. So, sterling starts Monday with one eye on Downing Street and the other on the economy. The markets will also be listening closely to what Burnham says, in particular on hints as to who might be chancellor.

Burnham will be aware that part of Starmer’s problem was a perceived indecision, yet last week’s economic data was – and the irony will not be lost on the PM or his chancellor – unequivocally positive. Inflation down, unemployment down, interest rates held, earnings better than expected and retail sales up. This, and possibly the politics, led sterling to weaken a little against the euro and a lot (close to 2%) against the US dollar over the course of last week as it argues against an interest rate increase next month too.

The dollar was benefiting from a tougher Federal Reserve message after Kevin Warsh’s first meeting in the chair, which also held interest rates at 3.75%.

So the week begins with a mix of political drama and the ongoing Iran-US conflict, or not. Also to watch out for, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a good global indication of business mood, arrives tomorrow. The public seems unfazed by continued conflict in the Middle East, but how about business? That will be followed later in the week by an influential measure of American inflation.

But before all that, markets will want to know who is likely to be leading the UK government.