Sterling starts out 0.6% up on this time last week and double that up on a month ago against the euro. Against the US dollar the performance has been less positive, but overall the likelihood of a smooth changeover to Andy Burnham as PM has supported the pound.

That replacement happens next Monday. Some analysis in the financial press is suggesting that sterling’s strong showing is not supported by the evidence. Attention is already shifting towards his choice of chancellor and plans for the autumn Budget, where spending ambitions will meet the rather less exciting reality of Britain’s public finances. See what the leading banks predict for sterling, the euro and US dollar in our new Quarterly Forecast.

This is also the start of a period of high-level data for the UK, at an important time. The USA-Iran war seems to be up and running again and the price of oil has risen. Admittedly to nowhere near the $100+ per barrel of April, but rising all the same. Last month the important numbers (inflation, unemployment and GDP) didn’t suggest anything like the economic fallout from the Ukraine War, which led to 11% inflation in the UK, but central banks are wary. Although we are still two weeks from the Bank of England’s next interest rate decision, markets will be pre-empting that with results for GDP on Thursday and then unemployment, earnings and inflation the following week. Right now they are pricing only a slim chance of a rate rise this month, with a hold still seen as by far the most likely outcome, but that could change as the numbers come in.

But it’s not just about the numbers in the UK. Tomorrow we’ll get America’s inflation numbers and if these move significantly it could easily move not just the dollar, but move the pieces across the board.