UK Inflation Falls to 2.6% - UTB’s Buster Tolfree Comments on Borrower Expectations for Lower Mortgage Rates

22 July 2026

UK inflation fell from 2.8% in May to 2.6% in June, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics. While the lower-than-expected reading is welcome news for households, United Trust Bank is warning borrowers not to assume it will automatically lead to lower mortgage rates.

Buster Tolfree, Managing Director of Mortgages, BTL & Bridging at United Trust Bank, comments:

“Today’s fall in inflation is encouraging and will offer some reassurance to households after a prolonged period of pressure on living costs. However, borrowers should not assume it will lead immediately to lower mortgage rates.

“Mortgage pricing is influenced by several factors including expectations about where inflation and Bank Rate are heading over the life of a product, as well as movements in wholesale funding markets. With energy prices and global conditions remaining uncertain, lenders will continue to assess the outlook carefully.

“For customers approaching the end of a fixed-rate deal or considering a property purchase, trying to predict the exact bottom of the market can be tricky. The more important question is whether the mortgage is affordable and sustainable for their circumstances.

“Brokers have a crucial role in helping customers understand the available choices, particularly where income, credit history or the property itself requires a more considered underwriting approach.”