Apart from a positive performance against a US dollar with its own problems, sterling has been largely on the back foot the past month. The Burnham bounce has played itself out and the markets are reported to be concerned about the Autumn Budget and the dwindling hopes (of global investors) for an interest rate rise.

Meanwhile, on Friday we had news that America’s jobs machine has finally spluttered. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data showed that employers unexpectedly cut 23,000 positions in July, the first monthly fall since February. Earlier estimates for May and June were also revised sharply lower.

The last time this happened President Trump promptly fired the person in charge of the data. It was all enough to change the mood around the US dollar. Investors immediately scaled back expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in September, sending the dollar lower on Friday. However, we only have to wait another 48 hours for America’s inflation numbers on Wednesday and they could easily alter the picture once again.

Sterling and the euro both gained marginally on the dollar, despite having their own inflation concerns.

Britain takes centre stage on Thursday with fresh Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2026. This will offer the clearest indication yet of how well Britain coped with the energy shock and uncertainty surrounding the Middle East. The Bank of England made its position clear by holding rates. Whether it was right to do so, when the European Central Bank raised its rates, may become clearer this week and next when the unemployment and inflation numbers join GDP.

After one surprisingly weak American report, markets will be looking for evidence that the slowdown is becoming a trend.