Jon Hall, OSB Group: UK Household Finance Review, this is caution, not distress

01 September 2026

Jon Hall, Group Chief Commercial Officer, OSB Group:

"House purchase lending was broadly flat on the year, running a little under 1% below the same period last year. Against most comparators that would be unremarkable, but Q2 last year was the post stamp duty dip, when purchase activity fell by around a tenth.

The most useful signal is the split. Refinancing has held up where purchase activity has not with 529,759 refinancial transactions in the quarter, and the same two patterns run through the landlord market, where remortgaging has been growing even as buy to let purchases have fallen. Across both, borrowers are choosing to stay put and refinance rather than commit to a transaction while pricing is still moving.

For landlords that looks like consolidation rather than retreat. Yields and interest cover have both improved on the year and arrears have fallen, which is not the profile of a sector heading for the exit. It is a professional market managing its portfolio and waiting. Whether that turns back into purchase activity depends less on sentiment than on whether pricing settles long enough for people to plan around it."