SD cuts could unlock pent-up housing demand ‘instantly’, says Lazarus economics head

14 October 2026

Cutting Stamp Duty (DS) could have an ‘instant’ impact on housing transactions and unlock significant pent-up demand in the market, according to the head of Lazarus Economics and Strategy.

Darren Winder told delegates at the Brightstar Specialist Lending Expo 2026 at the London Stadium on Wednesday 7th October that the costs associated with moving home, rather than affordability, were a key factor holding back transaction levels.

He pointed to a stark difference between the first-time buyer and home mover markets, arguing that first-time buyer activity remained relatively healthy while the number of existing homeowners moving had fallen substantially.

Winder said: “The first-time buyer market looks all right. So why aren’t people moving house? They’re not moving houses. They’ve got stamp duty. They’ve got legal fees. They’ve got moving fees. They’ve got all sorts of fees, all sorts of costs that they’re just not going to get back.”

He argued that reducing the stamp duty burden could help encourage more existing homeowners to move, particularly older borrowers who may otherwise remain in larger properties.

Winder said: “For me, the thing to do would be, at the very least, just get rid of stamp duty for anyone who’s downsizing, get rid of stamp duty for anyone who’s, say, over 60.”

He claimed around 80% of people aged over 60 own their own home, but fewer than 2% are moving, contributing to the lack of turnover in the housing market.

Asked how quickly removing stamp duty could have an impact on transactions, Winder replied: “Instant.”

He added: “It’s effectively a tax, and it reduces the volume. So remove the tax, you’ll increase the volume. I think in a very material way.

“I think there’s lots of pent-up transactions in the market that would happen.”

Winder also rejected suggestions that affordability was the fundamental problem facing the housing market.

He said average earnings had risen by around 40% since the pandemic, compared with a roughly 30% increase in house prices, while the house price-to-earnings ratio for first-time buyers stood at around 4.5 times - lower than before the pandemic.

He added that housing transactions were running substantially below their pre-financial crisis levels and argued regulatory changes, alongside transaction costs, would be needed to unlock greater activity.

Winder said a stronger housing market could also provide a wider boost to economic growth, as moving home typically generates additional spending elsewhere in the economy.